Winter has long been one of the most difficult seasons for restaurants, and industry data suggest January and February remain a challenging stretch for operators and kitchen staff across Toronto.
According to Restaurants Canada, the Consumer Dining Index (CDI) fell to 85.1 in December 2025, its lowest level of the year and down from 92.1 in December 2024, signalling weaker dining activity driven by affordability pressures and winter conditions.
For some chefs, the slowdown is immediately noticeable after the busy holiday season.
“The restaurant gets slow and it’s a weird feeling after coming from a busy time,” said Julian Cuenca, a chef working in a restaurant in Toronto’s Distillery District and a graduate of Humber Polytechnic’s culinary program.
Budget concerns remain the biggest reason Canadians are cutting back on dining out. Restaurants Canada also showed that in December, 42 per cent of Canadians said financial constraints caused them to dine out less often, while 31 per cent said recent weather discouraged restaurant visits, a sharp increase from 19 per cent in November.
Cuenca said colder weather and post-holiday routines contribute to fewer customers dining out.
“I think it’s because it’s much colder outside and after coming from Christmas break, people are most likely to go back to work,” he said.
The slowdown is especially visible during dinner service, typically one of the most profitable times of day for restaurants. The share of Canadians dining out for dinner at least once a week dropped to 27 per cent, down from 33 per cent a year earlier, marking the largest year-over-year decline across all meal periods.
Among higher-income households earning $100,000 or more, weekly dinner visits fell by 10 percentage points to 34 per cent, suggesting that even less price-sensitive diners are also dining out less frequently.
Cuenca said the winter slowdown affects kitchen operations in multiple ways, including reducing food preparation and staff hours.
“In my experience we make fewer batches of stuff and we mostly freeze everything so it won’t go bad,” he said. “We also don’t get that much hours during this season.”
He added that slower business can also impact staffing levels.
“Some staff are often let go and will come back during summer,” Cuenca said.
Marcu Angelo Cabrera, a chef at Carisma Italian Restaurant and another graduate of Humber Polytechnic’s culinary program, said January and February are typically the slowest months for his restaurant.
“January and February are usually dead compared to the ‘ber’ months,” Cabrera said, referring to the busy fall and holiday season. “It only gets busy during Valentine’s week.”
Cabrera said winter weather plays a major role in discouraging customers from dining out.
“I think people don’t want lining up for a waiting list, especially when it’s freezing outside,” he said. “They prefer staying home and ordering food delivery.”
While his kitchen team maintains regular lunch and dinner service, Cabrera said front-of-house staffing often changes to reflect lower demand.
“For us, we’re a small kitchen team and still do regular service, but they adjust front-of-house staff,” he said. “Instead of seven staff, they reduce to four or three people.”
Cabrera said slower periods often allow staff to focus on other kitchen responsibilities.
“Whenever it’s really dead, we find other things to do like deep cleaning the kitchen,” he said.
January often extends the winter lull. Restaurants Canada’s REACT Survey found that 36 per cent of Canadians expected to dine at table-service restaurants less often in January compared with December, while 32 per cent anticipated fewer visits to quick-service restaurants.
The slowdown continues into February, fuelled by post-holiday financial recovery, New Year’s resolutions focused on healthier eating or saving money, reduced tourism, and cold weather that discourages dining out.
To counter the seasonal dip, some restaurants participate in Winterlicious, Toronto’s annual prix-fixe dining program designed to draw diners back during what is typically one of the quietest times of the year. The event allows restaurants to offer set menus at lower price points, encouraging customers to dine out despite tighter budgets.
Cabrera said promotional events like Winterlicious help increase customer traffic.
“Yes, with advertising, people really want to try the special seasonal menu,” he said.
Cuenca also said the program helps bring customers back during slower months.
“Yes, Winterlicious does help offset the slowdown. It gets busy during weekends, which is good for the restaurant,” he said.
However, the winter slowdown does not affect every kitchen equally.
Noel Newton, a commis chef at a downtown Toronto hotel restaurant and fellow Humber Polytechnic culinary graduate, said hotel-backed dining establishments often have more stable operations.
“I’m in a restaurant but also part of a hotel, so I still get shifts because they have the budget,” Newton said. “But other restaurants are usually slower and they cut shifts.”
Newton added that seasonal events can quickly change the pace of business.
“Winterlicious just started, so it’s going to be busy for the next three to four weeks,” he said.
Earlier data point to a broader seasonal trend. In October 2025, the Consumer Dining Index, which measures the number of times Canadians get a snack or a meal in a restaurant each month, dropped 6.1 per cent month-over-month to 89.9, as colder weather began influencing consumer behaviour. Nearly half of Canadians said budget constraints led them to dine out less often.
For restaurant operators, the winter slowdown arrives amid persistently high costs. Rising food prices, labour expenses, and other operating costs continue to squeeze margins, leaving little room to absorb losses or raise prices for cost-conscious customers.
Cabrera said balancing expenses during slower months remains difficult for restaurant kitchens.
“Food stays expensive, labour doesn’t shrink that much, and rent stays fixed,” he said. “In short, sales drop but the costs don’t.”
Cuenca said managing costs during slower months can be difficult, often forcing kitchens to operate with minimal staff.
“It affects a lot of money. That’s why there are sometimes only two people working in the kitchen,” he said.
Despite the challenges, both chefs said slower months can offer opportunities to reflect and improve operations.
“For me, I see it as an opportunity to see what the restaurant can change to bring people in,” Cuenca said.
Cabrera described winter as both a challenge and a learning experience.
“It’s a challenge as a chef who wants more sales and to innovate food, but also an opportunity to learn more about the market during winter season,” he said.
Industry forecasts suggest pressure may persist. Restaurants Canada projects food service sales growth will slow to 2.3 per cent in 2026, following stronger gains during warmer months boosted by domestic tourism, especially with the FIFA World Cup 2026 happening in Toronto.
While dining out remains an important social activity for many Canadians, winter conditions and financial pressures continue to make January and February the slowest stretch of the year for restaurants, a period that tests both the resilience and creativity of Toronto’s kitchens.
For the chefs working through the slowdown, the motivation to stay in the industry often comes down to passion.
“I guess it’s the love for cooking,” Cuenca said.
“For me, it’s the passion for cooking and loyalty to the team,” Cabrera said.
