PCs lead Liberals by 17 points eight days before election

The Ontario Progressive Conservative Party holds a commanding 17-point lead over the Ontario Liberal Party in the latest Nanos Research poll ahead of the 2025 provincial election.

The survey, conducted for CTV News, shows the PCs at 45.8 per cent among decided voters, well ahead of the Liberals at 29.7 per cent. The Ontario NDP, who were the opposition before the election was called, trails at 15.9 per cent, while the Green Party sits at 6.7 per cent. Other parties account for 1.9 per cent of decided voters.

Support for the PCs is strongest in the Greater Toronto Area with 54.9 per cent and Southwest/Central Ontario with 52.7 per cent. In contrast, the Liberals perform best in the Golden West with 35.3 per cent and in Toronto with 34.8 per cent. The NDP’s strongest support is also in Toronto with 21.6 per cent and Golden West with 19 per cent, while the Green Party has its highest backing in Southwest/Central Ontario with 11.6 per cent.

The PCs maintain a significant lead among men with 53 per cent compared to women with 38.7 per cent. Among age groups, the PCs lead among voters aged 35 to 54 with 48.9 per cent and those 55 and older with 45.2 per cent. The Liberals see their strongest support among women with 33.9 per cent and voters 55 and older with 35 per cent. The NDP performs best among younger voters aged 18 to 24 with 20.5 per cent, while Green support remains consistent across demographics at around six to eight per cent.

The results showed 41.2 per cent of those surveyed selected would prefer PC Leader Doug Ford as premier, putting him well ahead of Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie at 24.4 per cent. NDP Leader Marit Stiles polled at 13.9 per cent, while Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner received 7.5 per cent support. The survey found 7.4 per cent of respondents were unsure and 4.7 per cent said they preferred none of the above.

Regionally, Ford’s support is highest in the GTA at 51.6 per cent and Southwest/Central Ontario at 43.1 per cent. Crombie has the most support in North and East Ontario 30.4 per cent and has her strongest backing in Toronto 29.1 per cent. Stiles has the highest support in Toronto 18.6 per cent, while Schreiner polls strongest in Southwest/Central 11.4 per cent.

Nick Nanos, chief data scientist at Nanos Research, said the PC Party's strength in the Greater Toronto Area as a key factor in its lead.

"Progressive Conservatives hold onto a double-digit lead with less than 10 days left in the provincial election campaign. Doug Ford is ahead of Bonnie Crombie by 17 points as person preferred as premier of Ontario," Nanos said.

The Nanos Research poll is based on a rolling three-night average of 900 interviews until Feb 18., 2025. Respondents were randomly recruited via a dual-frame sample of both landline and cell phone users, with half completing the survey via telephone and half online. The data was weighted by age and gender according to the latest Canadian census.