Democrats made historic gains deep in Republican strongholds, flipping Senate and House seats in last Tuesday’s midterm election. Despite some races still uncalled, results show that the power shift could put more pressure on Trump to end the U.S. war with Iran. But his administration could still escalate the situation before the new Congress convenes on Jan. 3, 2027.
Trump has three options for dealing with Iran, all of which carry risks. The first is to resume major strikes, a move that would be unpopular and could keep fuel prices high. Another is to negotiate. But if Iranians refuse to make concessions because they sense weakness after Trump’s political loss, he could have a hard time reaching a deal.
The third is to continue the naval blockade and sanctions against Tehran in the hope that the Iranian government will ultimately concede. This option could take months to show progress.
In the days after the election, the US carried out limited strikes against Iranian targets on Qeshm Island. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio described the strikes as defensive on Sunday.
Trump told reporters Friday evening that Iran had built an anti-aircraft device and that U.S. forces had “knocked it out.” He also said the U.S. was negotiating with Iran to reach a deal to end the war.
On Monday, however, President Trump told reporters he believed the war in Iran was effectively over from a military standpoint, suggesting he was unlikely to resume major strikes for now.
“Iran militarily is effectively over,” Trump said. “We’re just keeping it the status quo.”
35 Senate seats and all 435 voting seats in the House were up for grabs in this election. As of Nov. 9 results showed that Democrats had secured 54 seats in the Senate, a net gain of seven, and 254 seats in the House, a net gain of 42. Races in Mississippi and Alaska have yet to be called.
James Talarico routed Ken Paxton in Texas, becoming the state’s first Democratic senator-elect in 38 years. Democrats also made history in South Carolina by flipping a Senate seat. The party had never won a U.S. Senate race there this century. That historical blip could also happen in Mississippi, where a Black senator is expected to win the first Senate seat since Reconstruction.
In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton defeated Republican incumbent Roger Marshall. Democrats last won a Senate seat in Kansas in 1932, during the Great Depression.
After the U.S. and Israel launched the war on Feb. 28, Iran said it had closed the Strait of Hormuz, a major waterway which transports approximately 20 per cent of global oil. The disruption drove up energy prices globally.
Former head of Israel’s military intelligence research department and Iran specialist Danny Citrinowicz said in a post on X that the midterm elections may ultimately be remembered as the turning point that brought the war with Iran to an end. That does not mean another round of escalation is off the table.
“But the political reality in Washington has changed,” he said. “The connection between the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, rising global oil prices, and higher gasoline prices for American consumers is difficult to ignore.”
U.S. diesel and gasoline prices were the highest ever recorded on an election day, according to price tracker GasBuddy.
The national average gasoline price was US$2.98 per gallon when the war began, according to AAA figures.
Eight months later, the U.S. Energy Information Administration put the national average for regular gasoline at US$4.15 per gallon for the week of Nov. 2. High diesel prices can push up the cost of goods because farms, fishing boats, trucks and trains rely on diesel.
Nearly nine in 10 voters said the cost of living was a crucial or major factor in their vote, according to SSRS exit polling reported by Reuters.
It was a similar story in House races across the country. The AP survey of more than 100,000 midterm voters found about three-quarters of voters under 30 supported their local Democratic candidate, while about one-quarter voted for the Republican candidate.
While the Democratic win is a huge blow to Trump’s agenda, he still has the power to veto bills passed by a Democratic-controlled Congress. If he vetoes a bill, Congress needs a two-thirds majority in each chamber to override the veto.
U.S. President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance admitted the Iran war was a major reason for the Republicans’ extraordinary defeat.
The Republicans’ next electoral battleground is the 2028 presidential election. While there are reports that JD Vance and Marco Rubio intend to run, it is unclear who will win the Republican nomination. But it is now clear that how the war in Iran plays out will have a major impact on the result.
