Projections show Prime Minister Mark Carney should win the two seats he needs to form a majority government in the House of Commons in next week's byelections.
Three byelections are being held on April 13 that could give him and the Liberals, who currently have 170 seats, that slight edge to secure that majority. Two are being held in Toronto, University-Rosedale and Scarborough Southwest, and the other in Terrebonne in Quebec.
A majority would give Carney the mandate to govern until 2029.
In Scarborough Southwest, candidates include Doly Begum of the Liberals, Diana Filipova of the Conservatives, Fatima Shaban of the NDP, and Pooja Malhotra of the Greens.
Begum, who was the New Democrat MPP for the same area, crossed the floor to the federal Liberals after resigning on Feb. 3. The riding seat became vacant when former Liberal MP Bill Blair resigned after holding the area since 2015 to become High Commissioner to the U.K.
The Liberals hold a 99 per cent chance of retaining the seat, according to data compiled by political forecasters 388 Canada. Polling results show Carney solidified his position after his speech at Davos in late January.
Their aggregate surveys compiled by 338 Canada for the riding projects 62 per cent of committed voters support the Liberals, with a seven per cent margin of error.
The Conservatives are expected to garner about 25 per cent of the votes, with a margin of error of plus or minus six per cent, while the NDP is expected to receive seven per cent of the votes with a margin of error of plus or minus four per cent.
The Green Party is projected to garner three per cent of the votes with a three per cent margin of error.
The riding's education demographics, based on the 2021 Canadian census presented by 338 Canada, show 10.6 per cent of voters have no degree, 23.5 per cent have a high school education, 19.7 per cent hold a college degree, 24,3 per
cent have a bachelor’s degree, and 14.6 per cent have postgraduate degrees.
Of the voting pool, 54.3 per cent own their property, while 45.7 per cent are renters.
Half of the riding is employed, with 40.1 per cent not in the labour force and the remaining 9.9 per
cent unemployed. Most of the riding, or 61.7 per cent, commute with a vehicle and 31 per cent use public transit.
The census states more than 60 per cent of voters report being a visible minority.
In the University-Rosedale riding in central Toronto, Liberal candidate and family doctor Danielle Martin is leading in the polls with about 62 per cent of the committed vote, according to 338 Canada. The results have a seven per cent margin of error.
Other candidates include a PhD candidate at U of T and community activist, Serena Purdy, for the NDP, Andrew Massey for the Green Party, and Don Hodgson for the Conservatives.
According to 338Canada, the Liberals have a 99 per cent chance of winning the riding.
The CPC are projected to get 18 per cent of the vote, while the NDP are expected to get about three per cent of the vote.
The riding's previous MP, Chrystia Freeland, represented the riding from 2013 to earlier this year, when she resigned on Jan. 9 because Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy appointed her as an economic development adviser to the Office of the President of Ukraine.
Freeland held various positions in government, including finance minister and deputy prime minister.
The Canadian census shows 36.3 of the riding's residents have a bachelor's degree, and 31.3 per cent hold a postgraduate degree. The census also showed about 58 per cent of persons in the riding are employed, while nine per cent are listed as being unemployed
English is the language most spoken in homes in the riding, at 79.7 per cent. Mandarin, Cantonese, Portuguese, Spanish, Korean and French are also prevalent in the riding.
Polling in the Terrebonne riding north of Montreal suggests it will again be a close race between the Liberals and the Bloc Québécois, who are statistically tied. A Quebec court nullified last year's federal election and forced the byelection after a single vote pushed the riding to the Liberals.
But this byelection's polling has 338Canada indicating the Liberals have a 64 per cent chance of winning the riding. Surveys of voters show the Liberals with 40 per cent of support, while the BQ are two percentage points behind.
Story compiled by Humber Polytechnic's Advanced Diploma Journalism writers: Matt Wisniewski, Sharujan Viyaysinghabagu, Tyson Lauzon, Christian Lanzillotto, Jamellia Clarke, Rebecca Whittaker, Grace MacInerney, Jo McRae, Jordan Pestana Dos Santos.
